What began with Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and other targets on June 13, 2025 has now spiraled into the world’s first full-scale example of what I as an expert in nuclear security call a “threshold war” – a new and terrifying form of conflict where a nuclear weapons power seeks to use force to prevent an enemy on the verge of nuclearization from making that jump.

Shares of energy companies fell as traders bet that Israel and Iran would step back from the brink of a full-scale regional war. Crude oil futures shed 1.7% to close at $71.77 a barrel in New York. Oil prices briefly dipped below the psychologically significant $70-per-barrel level after The Wall Street Journal reported that Iranian leaders indicated they were open to returning to nuclear negotiations as long as the U.