This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. The Treasury yield premium model by Jens H.E. Christensen and Glenn D. Rudebusch (CR) decomposes the nominal yield curve into three ...

Business leader surveys can be an important and reliable source for insights into future labor market conditions, particularly for expected wage growth. Survey responses from financial executives ...

Recent rapid improvements in the capabilities of artificial intelligence (AI) have raised concerns about these technologies’ impact on employment, specifically, the rollout of generative AI models ...

Interest Rate Probability Distributions Implied by Derivatives Prices is a daily measure of the distribution of future short-term interest rates, calculated from prices of fixed-income derivatives ...

Together with CEPR we are hosting a monthly research seminar series Virtual Seminar on Monetary Economics (VSME) ...

The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market ...

The federal debt as a share of U.S. GDP is nearing its historical high from World War II. This ratio fell sharply over the three decades after World War II due to a primary surplus, rapid economic ...

The natural rate of interest is the inflation-adjusted interest rate consistent with the economy operating at full capacity. Although this rate helps gauge the economy’s health, empirical estimates of ...

Young adults are more likely to own a home if their parents are homeowners than if their parents are renters. New research reveals how parents owning a home can lead to an increase in the persistence ...

The U.S. unemployment rate has trended down for decades. Estimates after removing business cycle fluctuations show that the trend rate fell from 7.8% in 1976 to 4.8% in 2024. This decline reflects in ...

The current round of federal funds rate increases is expected to reverse a historically large gap between the real funds rate and the neutral rate at the beginning of the tightening cycle. Financial ...

Analyzing the narrative of historical Federal Open Market Committee meeting transcripts provides insights about how inflation target preferences of participants have evolved over time. From around ...